04/05/2017 - Impact of isolation on epidemic diseases - Palestrante: Tiago Pereira da Silva (ICMC-USP)
Seminário de Probabilidade e Sistemas Complexos - UFSCar-USP
Palestrante: Tiago Pereira da Silva (ICMC-USP)
Local: Auditório do Centro de Tecnologia da Informação no ICMC
Data e horário: Quinta feira, dia 4 de maio de 2017 às 14:00
Título: Impact of isolation on epidemic diseases
Abstract: Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to mankind. The final severity of such an initially small infection is significantly decided upon by the infectious period. We study isolation as a means to control epidemic outbreaks, focusing on the consequences of delays in isolating infected individuals. Our analysis uncovers a tipping point: if infected nodes are isolated before a critical day, the disease is effectively controlled, whereas for longer delays the disease is endemic. In fact, if the critical isolation day is missed and the time spent in quarantine is large, the disease outbreak becomes seasonal (periodic). We discuss these predictions in the context of recent Ebola and H1N1 outbreaks. This is a joint work with Lai-Sang Young (NYU), Serhiy Yanchuk and Stefan Ruschel (TU Berlin).