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31/07/2020 - The wisdom of crowds: fact or fake? - Palestrante: José F. Fontanari (IFSC-USP)

Quando 31/07/2020
das 14h00 até 16h00
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Seminário Conjunto UFSCar/USP

Data e horário: 31/07/2020 às 14h

Vídeo de Apresentação: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WZtBT4jukgHpFTaqW1bKPr5VmpNNzaQi/view?usp=sharing

Arquivo com Apresentação: Apresentação José Fontanari

Título: The wisdom of crowds: fact or fake?

Palestrante: José F. Fontanari (IFSP-USP)

Resumo:
The wisdom of crowds is the idea that the combination of independent estimates of the magnitude of some quantity yields remarkably accurate predictions, which are better than most individual estimates in the aggregate. Although this idea is more than a century old, being brought to light by Galton's 1907 seminal study of the estimation of the weight of an ox at the West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition in Plymouth, it is still a subject of fascination for the general public and for the scientific community as well. Here I discuss several statistical and psychological explanations for this phenomenon and argue that the most likely explanation for the high accuracy of the collective estimate is selective attention, i.e., the tendency to give prominence to successful outcomes only.

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